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The Team Estimate
Johanna Rothman
(September 18, 2007)
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Project team members produce good estimates and bad estimates, so how do you, the project manager, come up with the most realistic estimate?
Not everyone is a great estimator. Some people are over-optimistic and underestimate by as much as 50 percent for any task. Some people are pessimistic and add buffers for every single task. Some people estimate small tasks up to three or four days well but can't estimate anything that's longer than a week in duration. What's a project manager to do?
First, know your team. Decide how much feedback you want to give each person about estimation. You don't have to solve all these estimation problems the first week of the project.
Next, eliminate any extra time buffers on each task. Ask each person whether he or she has estimated with or without buffers. Explain that you're not trying to reduce the task time but that you want to make sure you have the most accurate estimate.
If you're using a serial or iterative lifecycle, consider using Theory of Constraints (TOC) to deal with the estimates.
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